As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. robert kraft granddaughter. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The State Of The Polls, 2016. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. 71 Episodes Share Follow Seasons About 38 minutes | Feb 16, 2023 The Hero Who Rode His Segway Off a Cliff Steve Jobs called It "the most amazing piece of technology since the PC." According to Jeff Bezos It was not only "revolutionary," but infinitely commercial. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. david senak now. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Thats Changing. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. The data behind that evolution is striking. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. Thanks! The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. . The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. 01:00 PM. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. Nate Silver's. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. PODCAST-19 brings you the latest evidence on the COVID-19 pandemic. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. By May 21, 2021 0 . As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. heritage commons university of utah. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. FiveThirtyEight Politics 3 days ago Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided. Preview of Spotify. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? June 2, 2016. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. 450 episodes. 0:00:00 fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. NEW TOWN . ( Businessweek) Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". This is the second episode. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Rev. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Local news is disappearing across the country. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Accuracy is not guaranteed. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. This is the first episode. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed.
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